The Greens have had Victoria in their sights for some time: it is next door to Elizabeth May’s Saanich–Gulf Islands riding and the party finished second, with about a third of the vote in the riding, in both a 2012 byelection and the 2015 general election. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 — the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. In such extraordinary times, we need someone who will fight to improve the lives of every person in this riding. With a significant francophone population, Orléans was long a Liberal stronghold: the party lost it only twice throughout the 20th century. But the NDP’s Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. Laverdière was a giant-killer when she took down Duceppe in this sovereignist fortress, but the election of Guilbault would demonstrate how Quebec’s politics are shifting toward a focus on the climate question rather than the "national question". Even if the Liberals fall to Igantieff levels of voter support (18%), Toronto-Centre will still be one of the 3-5 seats they win. The Liberals pulled off a big win in Kanata–Carleton to the west of the capital when Karen McCrimmon nearly doubled her party’s share of the vote between 2011 and 2015, capturing 51 per cent. The NDP’s fundraising has been anemic and its support in the polls has slipped. Hehr was given a seat at the cabinet table; he later lost it over allegations of sexual harassment, but he remains one of the Liberals’ best fundraisers and will put up a stiff fight against the Conservatives’ Greg McLean. It is hard to imagine a Conservative majority government without an MP from Burlington. While election day is officially on Oct. The New Democrats are hoping they will not end up on the bottom of that pile, particularly in ridings where they lack incumbents. Toronto Centre is a provincial electoral district in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.Since 1999 it has elected one member to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.. No incumbent and no Rosedale could change the dynamics here. The NDP has never had much success in the wider suburbs around Toronto, but the party is hoping that Jagmeet Singh will change that. She might be helped by the mixed election results in the riding over the last two elections. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. The judgment of those voters on the government’s approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat they’ve only won twice over the last 65 years. After scoring provincial breakthroughs in Atlantic Canada and a federal byelection win on Vancouver Island, the Greens are poised for what could be their best election ever. Because of its history and how it ranks on the list of winnable seats for both parties, the party that wins here has a very good chance of taking power in Ottawa. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. Chang’s meet-and-greets have made an impression upon students like Brendan Lim, 24, at the University of Toronto – St. George Campus. The old downtown City of Toronto ridings will be a wash of orange to prevent the provincial risk of a blue majority. Beauce does have a quirky political history, being one of the few francophone parts of Quebec to have never supported the Bloc Québécois — and having elected Bernier’s father Gilles when he stood as an Independent in 1993, after he had won it twice for the PCs in the 1980s. The Liberals are boosted by the presence of a cabinet minister — Maryam Monsef, minister for women and gender equality — but the riding was won by a relatively modest margin of just under nine points in 2015. David Morris should be able to hold onto this -- barely. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. It has been one of the safest Liberal seats in recent years; Kirsty Duncan won it by a margin of 39 percentage points in 2015. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal party’s banner this time. The federal Conservatives, who haven’t won here since 1984, want to do the same. Once a Liberal stronghold, La Pointe-de-l’Île hasn’t voted for the party since 1980. B.C. If previous provincial and federal elections are any indication, expect a high profile Liberal candidate to run in this riding and win handedly. The Conservative path to a majority government runs through the suburbs in places like Toronto and Vancouver, but in Ottawa as well. The two will be facing off again in this riding, one of many in the Halton and Peel regions that will play a big role in deciding if any party can win a majority government. Had it gone ahead, the Energy East pipeline would have supplied the Irving refineries in Saint John and the federal government has been blamed in part for the cancellation of this project. Morris hasn't proven compelling enough a campaigner to hold out against the NDP wave. Liberal MP Wayne Long has not always followed the party line: he voted for an inquiry into the SNC-Lavalin affair and against the party’s small-business tax measures — something that could help him in a province where the Liberal brand has taken a beating. The New Democrats gutted the Bloc’s support in the last two elections, but with the NDP’s support down steeply the Bloc could make a comeback in many of the seats it lost in the suburbs around the island of Montreal. While polls suggest most British Columbians support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, opposition is strongest on the B.C. The urban areas in southwestern Ontario tend to be closely-fought three-way battles between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. Trois-Rivières was a Bloc Québécois stronghold for nearly 20 years until the New Democrats won it in 2011. could be key to the NDP having a good election. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. A riding that splits between the Manitoba PCs and New Democrats at the provincial level, this is a key target for the Conservatives in suburban Winnipeg. The riding is typically Conservative territory and voted for the party and its predecessors in every election since 1972, with three exceptions: in 1993, in 1997 and in 2015, when Joe Peschisolido — a former Canadian Alliance MP — won it for the Liberals. Former MPP George Smitherman, who left provincial politics to join the race to become Toronto's next mayor, held the riding for 10 years. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. NDP now has momentum and a great lot of steam. History. The riding has swung between the Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives for quite some time, but one constant has been Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal: win or lose (he lost twice), he has carried the party’s banner here in every election since 2004. Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. One-fourth of its population lists Chinese as their mother tongue and nearly two-thirds of its residents are immigrants: Don Valley North is a very diverse riding. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in Regina–Lewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. The NDP’s win in Essex in 2015 was a significant breakthrough, as it was one of the few ridings where the party’s support actually increased over 2011. Berthier–Maskinongé was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDP’s share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 — largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDP’s orange wave. It was decided by a margin of just six points in 2015, with Sven Spengemann of the Liberals defeating Stella Ambler. The Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives are all covetously eyeing those seats — and all three parties have the potential for gains. An NDP victory is not out of the picture if the NDP wins province-wide. Losing Beloeil–Chambly to Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet also would be a symbolic loss for the NDP: it was here in a 1990 byelection that the New Democrats won their first seat ever in the province. Liberals also look like their holding out for a star. Morneau has handily won back his seat in Toronto Centre. They’re running Eddie Orrell, PC MLA since 2011, and are hoping to repeat some of the successes the provincial Tories have enjoyed on Cape Breton Island. When Cambridge swings, it tends to swing for good. Charlottetown might offer their best odds, even if the riding has elected a Liberal MP in every election since 1988 and the Greens took just 5.8 per cent of ballots cast there in 2015. The Ford family name will be on the ballot, but it will belong to Renata Ford, widow of former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who is running for the People’s Party. Andrew Saxton, who won the seat for the Conservatives in 2008 and 2011 and finished second-to-last in the 2017 leadership race, will be running against Wilkinson again. But that means it’s normally a reliably Conservative seat and Fuhr could face a challenge in preventing the riding from returning to the norm. That compares to more than 13,000 who made use of advanced polls in the riding in the general election last year. The Liberals swept all of Toronto’s seats in the last election, but both Stephen Harper in 2011 and Doug Ford in 2018 were able to win in places like Etobicoke and Scarborough. Still an NDP pick up while unlikely is possible and if that happens the Liberals will likely be reduced to single digits in seats. But in the absence of an NDP star candidate, I expect Liberals (running a good ground game) to still win by 5-12%. People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier says he wants to win back a seat in the House of Commons by running in one of two upcoming Toronto-area byelections. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservatives’ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought — thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government. B.C. ... although the riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1997. He is a first-time candidate in the upcoming federal election. He then expanded his party’s caucus to three seats in 2018, winning his own Fredericton South seat by a huge margin. Marco Mendocino won a closely-fought race against former finance minister Joe Oliver in 2015, returning Eglinton–Lawrence to its Liberal roots. I think this was incorrectly called. The riding was a three-way race in 2011. What will Quebec do this time? The contest is largely between the NDP and the Conservatives in Essex, but the resonance of the NDP’s criticisms of the Liberal government’s approach to free trade will be tested. That speculation resurfaced when Duguid confirmed a … I'm calling this one for the NDP even though this should be a safe liberal riding - for a few reasons: Toronto Centre is one of the safest Liberal seats, no matter how they are doing overall. The New Democrats are a long way from their historic breakthrough in the 2011 federal election under Jack Layton. These are the big questions that will be answered on Oct. 21 when voters cast their ballots in Canada’s 338 ridings — and how these 60 ridings swing will tell the story of this campaign. With the 2019 federal election fast approaching, there are still multiple ridings in the GTA where polls from 338Canada show the race is still a toss-up. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. The P.E.I. You can vote in advance polls up to and … Francis Drouin took the seat back for the Liberals in 2015 and is heading for a re-match with Lemieux. The riding, won by the Conservatives in 2011, went back to the Liberals in 2015 but it should be high on the Conservatives’ target list this year. And it wasn’t even close — Schreiner pulled twice the votes of his nearest rival. Éric Grenier 23/05/2018: Joe 67.21.155.12: Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. Neither the New Democrats nor the Greens have a strong base of support upon which to build in the riding, but if the Liberals lose enough votes to them it could give Saxton his comeback chance. The party is hoping to regain some of the seats it lost in the region four years ago, but it is facing an uphill climb. There aren’t many Liberal seats for the Conservatives to target in Western Canada, but their seats in suburban Winnipeg and the Greater Vancouver Region should be low-hanging fruit. Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg, the Conservatives and their predecessor parties had held sway in the riding uninterrupted for 43 years. Brison wasn’t a Liberal candidate in 1997 and 2000 either, when he won the riding as a Progressive Conservative. Federally, however, Davenport was solidly Liberal from 1962 until 2011, when the NDP’s Andrew Cash made a breakthrough. Will strategic progressive voters back the Liberals or the Greens, or could the two parties split the vote to the benefit of the Conservatives? The Liberals swept all 32 of Atlantic Canada’s seats in 2015, a feat that was always going to be hard to repeat. The Bloc Québécois won a majority of the province’s federal seats in 2008; the New Democrats took most of them in 2011 before being pushed to one side by the Liberals in 2015. 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